The Poker Upswing: Enjoy It, Don't Trust It
A poker upswing is a sustained period of results significantly above your expected win rate, driven by variance rather than a genuine change in skill. It feels like proof you have figured something out. Statistically, it usually is not.
The Same Variance, Running the Other Way
Every downswing has a counterpart. An upswing is the same statistical phenomenon running in the other direction – a stretch where your results sit well above your true long-run expectation, usually because a handful of coin flips landed your way and a deep run or two inflated your graph faster than your actual edge would predict.
The mechanism is identical to a downswing. MTT prize pools are top-heavy, which means a small number of deep finishes carry most of your expected profit. When those finishes cluster together by chance, your results spike upward in a way that has very little to do with how well you are actually playing in that stretch.
Why an Upswing Is Dangerous in Its Own Way
A downswing tests your discipline through frustration. An upswing tests it through confidence – which is harder to notice happening. Three patterns show up repeatedly during upswings:
- Moving up in stakes too fast. A doubled bankroll after a 60-tournament heater feels like permission to play higher. It is not proof you have an edge at the new level – it is proof variance ran in your favour at the old one.
- Attributing results to a strategy change. If you tweaked something in your game right before a heater, it is tempting to credit the tweak. Separating signal from noise here requires far more than 60 tournaments of data.
- Loosening bankroll discipline. A fat bankroll makes shot-taking and looser buy-in selection feel low-risk. The 100 buy-in rule does not pause itself because you are running hot.
What an Upswing Is Actually Good For
Used correctly, an upswing is an opportunity to build bankroll cushion, not a signal to spend it. A player who runs a genuine heater and banks the extra buy-ins rather than immediately deploying them at higher stakes comes out of the swing in a materially stronger position – more buy-ins, same edge, same risk of ruin as before the heater started.
It is also worth using an upswing to reinforce good process rather than credit luck. If your decisions were sound throughout, keep making them the same way once the heater inevitably cools off. The skill that was there before the upswing is the same skill that will be there after it.